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Political Staples (3 unread)

Live by the sword

Posted: October 6th, 2008, 6:09pm MST

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die by the sword (h/t National Newswatch).
Hint - if you want this to jump to the media you need side-by-side audio or better yet side-by-side video.
Unfortunately that can't happen in this scenario.
This could become very important

Posted: October 6th, 2008, 1:50pm MST

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because of the race tightens talk of the Liberals and NDP joining up against the Conservatives will only increase.

...Mr. Duceppe stressed in Montreal today that under no circumstances is he interested in a coalition with the Liberals, the New Democrats or the Greens in order to isolate the Conservatives.
Mr. Duceppe also says he would co-operate with Mr. Harper if the Tories came to the Bloc with a good idea.

If the Liberals want to form a coalition government with the NDP then they would either require a majority of the House between the two of them or they would need the BQ to vote with them to bring down the Conservative government AND for the BQ to vote with the Liberal/NDP government long enough for such a coalition to survive.
Reading the quote above pretty much rules that out.
Too much fun

Posted: October 6th, 2008, 1:44pm MST

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So, let's plug in the latest Nanos Research numbers into the Hill and Knowlton Election Predictor.

CP: 115
LP: 97
BQ: 55
NDP: 41

I am pretty sure this is not what the Conservatives envisioned when they called the election.
The all important Monday Nanos Research poll

Posted: October 6th, 2008, 12:10pm MST

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Everybody has been dying to see the latest from Nanos Research and here they are:

CP: 34%
LP: 29%
NDP: 20%
BQ: 11%
GP: 6%

If we were trying if Thursday's results were rogue or not than todays numbers are as mixed as they get. I think it is safe to say that things are indeed tightening up. You would think Harper and the other chess players would have known this but their status quo, steady-as-she goes policy on the economy is really hurting them right now. You would think that their internal polling would have warned them of this but apparently not.

You don't believe me - check out the Daily Leadership Index:

Stephen Harper 86 (-12)
Stephane Dion 58 (-1)
Jack Layton 55 (-5)
Elizabeth May 18 (+3)
Gilles Duceppe 12 (-4)

The once-mighty advantage is now a simple advantage. Seems the populous is looking for some leadership - stat!
Daily Harris-Decima

Posted: October 6th, 2008, 11:26am MST

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Can be found here.

CP: 32%
LP: 25%
NDP: 21%
GP: 12%
BQ: 8%

How many polls do we need before we are confident that the Conservatives are trending downward?
Now it makes sense

Posted: October 6th, 2008, 10:00am MST

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0I have to admit that the Vitruvius Experimental Election Predictor didn't make any sense to me until this explanation by Andrew Coyne. And now that Coyne has given it a cool nickname, the V-8 formula or just the V-8 as I prefer, it can catch on.
Now it makes sense

Posted: October 6th, 2008, 10:00am MST

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0I have to admit that the Vitruvius Experimental Election Predictor didn't make any sense to me until this explanation by Andrew Coyne. And now that Coyne has given it a cool nickname, the V-8 formula or just the V-8 as I prefer, it can catch on.
If you are looking for the Daily EKOS

Posted: October 6th, 2008, 8:00am MST

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you should know they have shifted from posting 10:00 am on the following to 10:00 pm of the same day as their polling results. You can find their latest numbers here and look for the results of their rolling poll including todays number tonight.
It is like the polling firms have adopted the announcement a morning strategy of the Conservatives in the last election. Be the first out and try to dominate the news cycle. Too bad we're poll junkies focused on the next hit.
If you are looking for the Daily EKOS

Posted: October 6th, 2008, 8:00am MST

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you should know they have shifted from posting 10:00 am on the following to 10:00 pm of the same day as their polling results. You can find their latest numbers here and look for the results of their rolling poll including todays number tonight.
It is like the polling firms have adopted the announcement a morning strategy of the Conservatives in the last election. Be the first out and try to dominate the news cycle. Too bad we're poll junkies focused on the next hit.
And how are things in 905 anyway

Posted: October 6th, 2008, 7:29am MST

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Now that all attention is being shifted from Quebec to 905 let's take a look at 905.

..."This is a pretty scary time we are going into, particularly with what is happening in the United States," said Ms. Gray, still weighing her choices in Newmarket-Aurora, a sprawling suburban riding northeast of Toronto. "We need a strong leader and I don't see [Liberal Leader] Stéphane Dion as that leader for us."

I quote this because Susan Gray is from my hometown of Newmarket. Let's here from Peter Donolo regarding the battleground polls in the 905.

..."We have seen a real migration of Liberal votes to the Conservatives," possibly enough to defeat Liberal incumbents in several ridings, including Halton, said pollster Peter Donolo of The Strategic Counsel.
Strategic Counsel's daily polling in the most contested 905 ridings shows Conservative candidates running four percentage points ahead of where they were in the 2006 election, while Liberal candidates are running 10 percentage points behind. The Conservatives are at 43 per cent; the Liberals at 30 per cent, the NDP at 19 per cent and the Greens at 7 per cent.
And how are things in 905 anyway

Posted: October 6th, 2008, 7:29am MST

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Now that all attention is being shifted from Quebec to 905 let's take a look at 905.

..."This is a pretty scary time we are going into, particularly with what is happening in the United States," said Ms. Gray, still weighing her choices in Newmarket-Aurora, a sprawling suburban riding northeast of Toronto. "We need a strong leader and I don't see [Liberal Leader] Stéphane Dion as that leader for us."

I quote this because Susan Gray is from my hometown of Newmarket. Let's here from Peter Donolo regarding the battleground polls in the 905.

..."We have seen a real migration of Liberal votes to the Conservatives," possibly enough to defeat Liberal incumbents in several ridings, including Halton, said pollster Peter Donolo of The Strategic Counsel.
Strategic Counsel's daily polling in the most contested 905 ridings shows Conservative candidates running four percentage points ahead of where they were in the 2006 election, while Liberal candidates are running 10 percentage points behind. The Conservatives are at 43 per cent; the Liberals at 30 per cent, the NDP at 19 per cent and the Greens at 7 per cent.
You can find

Posted: October 6th, 2008, 6:22am MST

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a good review of the current Harris-Decima, Nanos and Strategic Counsel polls here.

..."They allowed themselves to be seen as outsiders, as a party with views outside those of most Quebeckers," said Strategic Counsel pollster Peter Donolo. "The dream of building a majority in Quebec has evaporated. All eyes now are on Ontario."
If, as Mr. Donolo suggests, the Conservative decline in Quebec is irreversible, then the battleground will be Ontario - and a campaign to squeeze every possible seat out of the voters who live in the 905 area-code ridings surrounding Toronto and the adjacent 519 ridings in southwestern Ontario.
But Harris/Decima shows Conservative support eroding while NDP support grows - and in many ways, the two parties are targeting the same swing voters: the so-called economic battlers with pressing kitchen-table concerns - and the Liberals are staying flat.

Oh, the irony. Strategic voting could suppress the NDP vote in ridings where it is the NDP hurting the Conservatives allowing the Conservatives to come up the middle and win close seats.
What a wild day

Posted: October 5th, 2008, 9:31pm MST

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of election polls. Now we have one from EKOS (h/t Paul Wells)

CP: 35%
LP: 25%
NDP: 19%
BQ: 10%
GP: 10%

Why this big difference between this poll and the Nanos poll? Quebec. The EKOS poll has Quebec polling like this.

BQ: 35%
CP: 27%
LP: 21%
NDP: 9%
GP: 7%

I should point out that these results include polling from Friday, Saturday and today.
There is always the battleground poll

Posted: October 5th, 2008, 8:22pm MST

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from Strategic Counsel. The latest confirms what every other firm is saying about Quebec.

Bloc Quebecois: 40 per cent (-2)
Liberal: 22 per cent (+3)
Conservative: 21 per cent (-1)
NDP: 13 per cent (+1)
Green Party: 4 per cent (same)

(from the last poll Sept 30-Oct 2)

But the numbers in Ontario

Conservative: 40 per cent (-2)
Liberals: 28 per cent (+3)
NDP: 21 per cent (-1)
Bloc Quebecois: n/a
Green Party: 12 per cent (+2)

and British Columbia

Conservative: 38 per cent (-2)
Liberal: 27 per cent (same)
NDP: 22 per cent (-1)
Bloc: n/a
Green Party: 13 per cent (+3)

still show Conservative strength though not the same strength they had a couple of weeks ago.
There is always the battleground poll

Posted: October 5th, 2008, 8:22pm MST

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from Strategic Counsel. The latest confirms what every other firm is saying about Quebec.

Bloc Quebecois: 40 per cent (-2)
Liberal: 22 per cent (+3)
Conservative: 21 per cent (-1)
NDP: 13 per cent (+1)
Green Party: 4 per cent (same)

(from the last poll Sept 30-Oct 2)

But the numbers in Ontario

Conservative: 40 per cent (-2)
Liberals: 28 per cent (+3)
NDP: 21 per cent (-1)
Bloc Quebecois: n/a
Green Party: 12 per cent (+2)

and British Columbia

Conservative: 38 per cent (-2)
Liberal: 27 per cent (same)
NDP: 22 per cent (-1)
Bloc: n/a
Green Party: 13 per cent (+3)

still show Conservative strength though not the same strength they had a couple of weeks ago.

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Political Staples (3 unread)

Posted: October 6th, 2008, 6:09pm MST

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Posted: October 6th, 2008, 1:50pm MST

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Posted: October 6th, 2008, 1:44pm MST

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Posted: October 6th, 2008, 12:10pm MST

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Posted: October 6th, 2008, 11:26am MST

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Posted: October 6th, 2008, 10:00am MST

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Posted: October 6th, 2008, 10:00am MST

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Posted: October 6th, 2008, 8:00am MST

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Posted: October 6th, 2008, 8:00am MST

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Posted: October 6th, 2008, 7:29am MST

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Posted: October 6th, 2008, 7:29am MST

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Posted: October 6th, 2008, 6:22am MST

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Posted: October 5th, 2008, 9:31pm MST

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Posted: October 5th, 2008, 8:22pm MST

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Posted: October 5th, 2008, 8:22pm MST

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