H1N1 a ‘dud’ pandemic
Finally, some realistic perspective.
The huge investments governments made into swine flu pandemic planning might not have been justified, a public health official said Thursday.
“It’s really not causing — and is not going to cause and nowhere has caused — significant levels of illness or death,” said Dr. Richard Schabas, Ontario’s former chief medical officer of health.
The words to pay attention to are “not causing“, “is not going to cause“, and “nowhere has caused” significant levels of illness and death.
Amid the current fear and paranoia that makes up the 2009/10 flu season this level of reasoned thinking will undoubtedly go quite unnoticed by most, but it’s nice to see someone trying.
This is one of those arguments you can’t lose SL.
Now that the vaccine has been rolled out – and has proven to be far more popular than any thought – it’s easy to take potshots. 20/20 hindsight and all.
Thankfully we’ll never know if a devastating pandemic would have spread through Canada.
In other news – taxmoney spent on Polio vaccine ‘wasteful’ and ‘unnecessary’ says former Health Minister.
As noted before, Health Canada mounted an effect public health campaign aimed at mitigating the impact of H1N1. Since the impact appears to have fallen within the predicted range, we’ll never know what might have happened had they not. The one thing we know for sure is the the government would have been been torn to shreds if they had ignored the science and done nothing.
Wrong, Dr. PandemicPoohPooher. The question is, why was the contract for the vaccine sole-sourced?
Not so fast Mr. SL. Don’t gloat yet. Maybe the worse is yet to come.
or
Maybe Balbul has a point. Maybe due to intelligent government action(that’s a switch), the worse predictions have been thwarted.
I’ve seen a massive change in public behaviour (use of hand cleansers, coughing in to sleeves, and a decline in the ubiquity of public spitting). Those changes are all the result of publicly funded education campaigns, all intended to reduce the severity of the pandemic. Stage, you seem to be annoyed because it may have actually worked.
Saved by Pur-ell!
I guess the argument here is that it’s a bad thing to `cry wolf’ – but I just can’t see it that way. The change in public behaviours balb noted, the practice in getting a new vaccine rolled out to significant fractions of the vulnerable population in a decent amount of time, and finding out what works and doesn’t, I think this is all incredibly vaulable. I think all levels of government handled things moderately poorly (primarily through lack of coordination) but it was hardly a disaster or waste of money.
I agree with J., and I would add to that a reminder of a previous point – that the current political and media climate punishes failure to act much more severely than it punishes excessive caution – think Katrina.
the current political and media climate punishes failure to act much more severely than it punishes excessive caution
So does stageleft.
Sorry.
It would be interesting to know how many Canadians have died from the annual regular flu.
I’ve been really busy of late with travelling, work, and visiting family — so lots of relies in one comment follow:
20/20 hindsight not necessary, all one had to do was ask Comrade Google how things went south of the equator where there was no vaccine available during their flu seasn.
No, I am annoyed at the tactics employed
Ah yes…. maybe … and maybe an asteroid will strike the earth – a couple have come really close lately you know. If you wanna live your life based on maybe have at it, just don’t expect the rest of us to do so, or appreciate the hype that generally surrounds maybe.
… and what happened in the story of the little boy who called wolf?
Sorry to try and take away your hoped for “gotcha you hypocrite!!!” Peter, I stand by that post – as I said “….. there’s a world of difference between conditions up there and conditions down here.”
– and as I finished up with
You feel like reading that part out loud to the rest of us
According to Health Canada
A recent news article quotes a health official using different numbers
In either case we are no where near those numbers.
I was also heartened to see a little more reason being expressed in the same article
Never a hypocrite, friend. But “Gotcha”? You betcha!
“In either case we are no where near those numbers.”
Two different things are being measured: death toll from the seasonal flu, and death toll from pneumonia related to flu.
“…More than 190 Canadians have died from H1N1 – and with additional deaths expected, health officials say there is a heightened urgency to get more people vaccinated quickly, especially the young who have been so badly affected.
The death tally, which in the spring averaged two to four a week, is at least three times higher during this second wave as the virus spreads. “We haven’t seen the peak yet, in my view,” David Butler-Jones, Canada’s chief public health officer, said yesterday. “We will continue to see, unfortunately, more people in ICUs and hospitals, and, unfortunately, more deaths as well.” …”
“…The seasonal flu kills about 4,000 people each year and results in the hospitalization of tens of thousands more, but those deaths are estimated, whereas H1N1 deaths are confirmed.
“It’s not fair to make the comparison,” said Kumanan Wilson, Canada research chair in public-health policy at the Ottawa Hospital Research Institute. “On the ground level, this is definitely not that much milder than the seasonal flu as those mortality stats would suggest. It’s as bad, if not worse as regular seasonal flu. That’s the clinical experience.” …”
Much more at the link;
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/health/h1n1-swine-flu/second-h1n1-wave-takes-lethal-toll-on-canadians/article1361766/
@balbulican: As you are aware the flu very rarely kills, it is the complications (from pre existing medical conditions) that kills.
@Holly Stick: Once again, the numbers are no where near deaths related to seasonal flu. In addition to what you are being told by your government look south of the equator where they have already dealt with the flu season, H1N1 mortality reality bore little relation to H1N1 mortality predictions – and they did not have a vaccine.
Ohferchrissakes – hospitals in Sudbury have run out of ventilators because they’re all being used by people with H1N1.
“As you are aware the flu very rarely kills, it is the complications (from pre existing medical conditions) that kills.”
Quite. As noted, however, your two sets of statistics are measuring two different things, so your comparison is invalid.
Actually, no, that “Many others may die from other serious complications of flu.” covers it.
I wish you wouldn’t make me do this.
Group A consists of victims who die “every year from pneumonia related to flu.”
Group B reflects the “death toll from the seasonal flu”.
Those are not the same. Sorry.
According to this article, in Alberta “In a regular flu season, 11 to 91 people die directly from the flu or because of complications brought on by the flu. It’s not known how many are children.” So a range of 11 to 91 die each year of seasonal flu or its complications.
So far in Alberta H1N1 has killed 38 people including one child; so the number is within the seasonal flu range, however:
“Alberta is close to reaching the peak of the second wave of the pandemic, but should expect to see a third and fourth wave of illness in the winter and spring which could infect up to 30 per cent of the population.”
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/health/Alberta+child+dies+from+H1N1+complications/2220545/story.html
Someone pointed out somewhere that Alberta has a younger population, so it may be hit harder by H1N1 which kills some younger people more often than seasonal flu does. And Alberta had the flu early on compared to most of the country, I believe.
@stageleft – “…If you wanna live your life based on maybe have at it, just don’t expect the rest of us to do so, or appreciate the hype that generally surrounds maybe….”
There is nothing wrong in considering the ‘maybe’s’ – I am talking about simple precautions like avoiding crowded rooms that may have sneezing people or elevators in hospitals. Nothing particularly inconvenient, does not mean I want to hide in a cave until this blows over.
I nearly died from a bronchial infection brought on by chain smoking and a cold that evolved into pneumonia then compounded by a bout of seasonal flu shortly after a flu shot. Which one to blame? My own self-destructive, costly, stinky addiction, those damned and fickle fates, or some flu shot encouraged by some government bureaucrats? Hmmmm. Which appeals more to my sense of conspiracy, reality or the ridiculous?
@shmohawk – You can start with giving up a dirty, wasteful, expensive, unhealthy habit.
Oh wait, maybe ‘expensive’ does not apply in your case.
Except for medicare costs
Oh, yes, expensive did count, ya shmuck. What nasty little worm in your mind thinks it wouldn’t be? What ugly little stereotype is in there. C’mon. Time to open the attic windows and let some light into those dark, dank corners.
As for me… Anyone who smokes – and I quit soon after that nasty episode – is burning money for no good reason regardless what kinda of “deal” you think you got.
Oh oh.
I am watching Stageleft turn slowly red at his monitor as he reads that, Shmo. I am walking slowly away from him, toward the exit, not turning my back…
I expect an attempted spanking. Luckily, I have learned a trick when as a wee lad I cleverly hid a phone book down me pants to absorb the spank. Sadly, I misread the instruction manual and placed said phone book in the front. I have learned from my mistake.
Ah. The ole Bell Codpiece.
shmohawk, I would have blamed none of those things. They all invite a flurry of unwanted opinion from friends and family. I would have put it all down to my alcohol level having fallen to a dangerous low.
Ah, yes… the much used but oft ridiculed pickling solution, shaken and stirred before flopping face down on the carpet. Not something I fancy these days. But it tends to lead to a condition known as bulbous red nose – not to be confused with balbulicanitis.
@balbulican – @shmohawk – “I expect an attempted spanking” – Shmo
Umm, maybe I am missing something? So why is Shmo have to be on the defensive? I purposely slipped him a shiv by making a crack which alludes to cheap smokes on the reservation. His response to me was expected and delightfuly humourous, well I chose to take it that way. As I am sure SL and Balbul take it the same way when I call them ‘barking dogs of the left’.
You lost me there, pal.
@balbulican –
From your comment “… am watching Stageleft turn slowly red at his monitor as he reads that Shmo”
I see, I mistakenly thought you were saying SL would be offended at Shmo’s strong language at me(calling me a ’smuck’, et al), but silly me, you must be referring to an earlier comment of Shmo’s.
Uh…no. I am referring to Stageleft’s smoking.
To bring the discussion back on topic……….
Yup. That was within the range of outcomes predicted.