H1N1 overplayed by media, public health: MDs
Public health officials and journalists have overstated the importance of the swine flu, a former Ontario chief medical officer of health says.
Dr. Richard Schabas, chief medical officer of health for Hastings and Prince Edward Counties in eastern Ontario, said the H1N1 influenza outbreak needs to be put into proper perspective.
– perspective is something that is sadly lacking in this whole, so called, discussion.
The federal government, politicians at all levels, the public health service, and the ‘if it bleeds it leads‘ media have all been totally irresponsible in the hype surrounding this years flu season.
Approximately 4,000 Canadians a year die as a result of age or existing medical complications coupled with the flu – and there is not wall to wall 7/24 coverage of each and every one of those deaths is there.
Have you stopped and asked yourself why?
I agree with the Ontario medical officer as I think the so called swine flu, the H1N1 virus is overhyped. Not to dismiss tragic deaths of children especially. I recall the Asian flu of fall, 1957 and the Hong Kong epidemic in late 1968. Both affected me from the neck up as in acute sinusitis with coughing. I don’t recall my parents being ill in both years and my grandparents were not ill in ‘57. All survived the 1918 pandemic.
“Have you stopped and asked yourself why?” – SL looking for a conspiracy
Well SL, you’re are not buying into the conspiracy theory that Big Pharma is hyping this to sell more products, are you? Or that they(the evil CIA) want to cull the earth’s population? Surely not.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTgyakGAddM
I think its something cattlemen have come up with to scare potential pork lovers into buying beef. hee, hee.
@Canuckguy: Nope, I could speculate a bit as to why the government, the politicians, and the public health agencies, are hyping what has been described many times as a relatively mild flu in the vast majority of cases — and my speculation would include attempts to foster dependence.
This is a win/win for them – if it turns out as mild as all reports indicate they will pat themselves on the back for a job well done, and if it turns into a medical disaster they will say “our quick thinking kept it from being worse than it was“.
The media obviously sees it as a cash cow and are more concerned with putting eyes on TV screens and print/internet pages than anything like actual reporting (otherwise in the grand scheme of things H1N1 would be a 60 second spot near the end of the 10:00PM newscast) but they wouldn’t have been able to generate 1/2 the fear and hysteria they have without the help of the government, the politicians, and the public health agencies.
I’m neither buying into the hype nor contemplating a shot – others can let the fear overwhelm them if they want, I’m leading a full and happy life these days and there’s no time or room in it for government/media generated hysteria in it.
The Public Health Agency of Canada’s mandate involves dealing with possible pandemics. Another part of its mandate concerns vaccine programs. Health professionals in general, scientists, people who understand how vaccines work, believe in them – regardless, really of the disease. Their position tends to be, “Why wouldn’t you get vaccinated against anything if you can?”
I don’t think H1N1 was over-hyped. I think it IS news when healthy Canadians die of the flu. And we have a number of healthy Canadians currently on ventilators, which is unusual, as well. The campaign to vaccinate people (I doubt I’ll get it – but I’m a conspiracy theorist at heart who believes Big Pharma can’t be trusted).
I do trust the government, however (even this one), so I certainly wouldn’t advise anyone else, including my nearest and dearest, from getting vaccinated. We have a family member ill with it right now, she’s on Tamiflu, and quite sick. We expect recovery, of course, but this flu can really drag on, too, with fatigue and a cough, apparently. Due to other aspects of this particular flu, she is currently being looked after by her grandparents. So far, it’s been a week of her being down for the count – a healthy teenager.
SL, if you were PM today, would you dare run the risk of “underhyping” a potential pandemic? Of course, if you were PM, me and my pals would be in the streets chanting Remember, Remember, The Fifth Of November…
They didn’t hype the pandemic so much as they hyped the vaccine. From a public health perspective, vaccination is the best way to prevent disease – another part of its mandate – and reduce the strain on the healthcare system.
For instance, in terms of advertising, this campaign was nothing compared to the hype around the Gardasil vaccine for HPV.
@stageleft -This flu is like the rest of them they all affect,the very young, and , old , pregnant women first ,of course they do ,the young have not developed a strong enough Resistance,the old and pregnant,have a compromised immune system and deaths have always been attributed to in those cases, not to downplay these tragedies,but lets not get carried away either.This was mainly for cunuckguy ,I totally am in consent of your theory (conspiracy ) ? I doubt it ,it’s a fact.
Nope. This flu isn’t like the rest of them, that’s the problem. Middle-aged people with healthy immune systems are ending up on ventilators with H1N1. And old people aren’t as at risk because they’ve got some immunity from previous pandemics. And it just isn’t usual for healthy young people to die of the flu – and that’s what’s happened. No real warning, either. The deaths are quite sudden.
What is missing in this whole debate, is a sense of proportion. Last time I looked, the US loses about 16,000 people a year to the garden variety flu. Obama in his wisdom, just declared an emergency for h1n1, but so far there have been some where around 1,000 deaths in the US. Now if you are going to declare an emergency, wich one do you think warrants it? I am not saying we need not be concerned, but we should also avoid running around screaming the sky is falling when clearly it is not. Have we learned nothing from the enviro nazi’s and Global cooling/warming/cooling crowd? A little balance and perspective please.
What enviro nazis? Taseko Mines which wants to use Fish Lake, one of the best natural fishing lakes in the country – as a tailings pond? Which Global warming (leading to climate change) crowd? The one that doesn’t want to do anything about it because it doesn’t understand the science?
We don’t live in a time when healthy people normally die of the flu. And yet, that’s what’s happened and is happening. And a lot of healthy people are on ventilators right now and the danger is we won’t have enough of them, particularly in certain areas of the country, if this thing gets a lot worse.
that’s right its just another plant in the (influenza) garden,deaths occur in all illnesses,like I said “it’s just another strain ,a handful of people dying in a country does not make a pandemic ,if people were dying all around us and not some scattered deaths here and there,my sympathy and condolences go out to them,but a pandemic it does not make,although romsfeld(Glaxo ,smith and klien)thank all governments that have placed orders. CHEERS!
Because they produce the vaccines that prevent people from getting the flu, in particular, H1N1 which would appear to be causing the deaths of otherwise healthy Canadians. That’s a significant and notable difference between the seasonal flu and this pandemic, a word you seem to have confused with epidemic.
I’d put most of the blame on the media with this one. The initial scare in Mexico was blown way out of proportion with reporting of pretty much every death from “flu-like” symptoms being attributed to the swine flu when only a small fraction of the cases actually were. (There are any number of illnesses which can cause “flu-like” symptoms.)
The WHO and other disease scientists jumped at the chance to track a possible pandemic in its earliest stages, since things are usually far further advanced before they can catch it, and the media trumpeted its spread.
From there, you had the worry-wort brigade hammering the governments to “DO SOMETHING!”, and anything they did do to try and placate that crowd was immediately picked up by the media as proof of how serious this all was, creating a nice feedback loop.
Finally, it didn’t take too long for the provincial and territorial governments to hit upon the idea that this would be an excellent opportunity to hit the feds up for further resources, such that it would be in their best interests to feed the hype some.
Of course, none of this speaks to whether or not it is a good idea to get the vaccine or not, since in almost all cases, it is better to get the vaccine rather than the disease.
You are announcing that it is overblown without knowing what stage it is at now. Sooey is making much sense here. There is a CP story today which quotes “influenza epidemiologist Lone Simonsen” (google it, I don’t want to put the link in here and delay my post).
Simonsen points out that parts of the country are just having their first wave, parts are having their second; and that a third wave in February or March would not be surprising. Pandemics do not act like seasonal flus, and this one is killing more young people and children. Young healthy people are more vulnerable to this kind of flu than to the seasonal one.
Schabas has his opinion, but different opinions are held by people who are just as qualified or more than him.
The stage I heard about on the news this afternoon was that it’s peaking and the peak will be a memory by the time there’s enough vaccine out for all those who want it
…. why am I not surprised to see the “third wave” talk starting already? It sounds like a good titled for a bad space movie……
If this flu was a bad as the government, and the public health agencies, and the media, hyped it to be we would have seen reports of thousands and thousands and thousands of deaths from below the equator where their flu season has recently wound down – did you see reports of thousands, and thousands, and thousands, of deaths Holly?
I’m not telling people they shouldn’t get a flu shot if they want one, it’s a 100% personal decision as far as I’m concerned – unfortunately many people I know are making their decisions based on little more than fear.
Here’s what happens.
a) Scientists identify a new strain of flu.
b) Scientists provide a range of potential outcomes. There are too many variables to predict what will actually happen, so they’re giving a range of bell curve options, with likelihoods based on what’s known.
c) Certain measures can reduce the impact of the outbreak. These measures require political decisions on expenditure of public resources. If politicians and bureaucrats guess wrong and the projection at the high end of the bell curve is reached, the politicians and bureaucrats get nailed to wall because too many people died. If they guess wrong and few people die, they get nailed to the wall for “hysteria”.
d) Media outlets cover the story, emphasizing the worst possible outcomes…more exciting, better sales.
It’s a cyclical and self-correcting mechanism.
Cyclical I’ll give you, but where’s the self-correcting part?
Iteration A leans too far toward axis A on the continuum. Response as described.
As a s result, Iteration B leans too far toward axis Z on the continuum. Response as described.
Worldwide to Nov 1, over 482,300 cases (this figure is low since a lot of people are not tested) and at least 6071 deaths (again, probably low)
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_11_06/en/index.html
I continue to be struck by the number of people who will question everything their politicians say but who will kneel down in supplication to the phrases “Science says” or “According to scientific experts…”. Surely by now we know that the public isn’t going to buy holus-bolus into scientific consensus without some experiential evidence to substantiate what they say, experential evidence that they themselves observe, as opposed to global macro-statistics that have no resonance in their own lives. This is a good thing, people!!! It’s called power to the people! It is presumably what traditional aboriginal knowledge is all about. For example, the medical profession continues to rail against chiropractic as having “no basis in science” even though it’s been established successfully for decades and people report higher satisfaction levels for chiropractors than medical doctors. Hate to say it, but climate change is running into the same problem and all the navel-gazing about how to perfect the message isn’t going to change the fact that people don’t see much change after thirty years of hype and aren’t going to wager the mortgage until they do just because a new crackerjack study has just come out from UCLA.
Vaccinations don’t have to prove themselves. The eradication of smallpox, polio and rubella alone were blessings by any measure. People who rail against them on semi-mystical grounds are public menaces. But urging someone not to have a brand new vaccination for an unfamiliar disease is not the same as making someone a pariah for not taking it. There is controversy on several fronts, there is risk and, so far, the calamitous predictions have not happened. I am deeply suspicious of these “round two” predictions, which smell just a little too “cover thy ass” for my money. I know more people who have suffered serious effects from the vaccination (two) than I know people who have suffered anything more than a couple of ordinary flu days from H1N1 ( 3-4 indirectly) . Not much room for a respectable margin of error there and not exactly the Black Death. I will probably take the vaccination, but my wife won’t, and I’m going to get in touch with my inner Mongol warrior if she gets attacked by amateur scientific Jesuits muttering that chilling phrase, “herd immunity”.
I’m not getting the vaccine. But I’m not about to argue on the Internet against what is sound science, either.
Of course, I’m not a Conservative.
Vaccines prevent the spread of disease. That’s what preventive healhcare is all about. It’s not a government conspiracy. It’s modern medicine.
OK, let me get this straight. Sooey believes we should go with scientific authority, but isn’t going to have the vaccine. I am suspicious of “settled science”, but I’m probably going to have it anyway.
I love Canada!!!
“I continue to be struck by the number of people who will question everything their politicians say but who will kneel down in supplication to the phrases “Science says” or “According to scientific experts…”.
Well, maybe I can help you with that.
a) When politicians speak about the political process – the area in which they have skills, knowledge and experience – I listen intently. However, when they talk about science, it tends to be through a political filter – “sexy” isotopes and cancer chat, and so on.
b) When scientists talk about science – – the area in which they have skills, knowledge and experience – I listen intently. Not so much when they talk about politics.
gi8venh
Peter, I remember back some fifty years, and yes, the climate at my home has gotten warmer and drier in that time. Which happens to agree with all the scientific research which says we are causing climate change.
Holly Stick:
Yes, but it also agrees with the alternative explanation. Please don’t ask me to defend the science behind either one, because I can’t.
balb;
I definitely agree we should listen to scientists intently, and most of us do. Unfortunately many of them aren’t satisfied with that.
You all realize we have been vaccinating babies forever in this country from measles, mumps, rubella – hardly deadly diseases anymore. One reason we do it is because the fetus in utero can suffer damage as a result of a pregnant woman contracting any of those diseases. And boys can reproductive complications from having had the mumps. So it’s something we do for the collective good. Although it’s pretty much mandatory, too.
On the other hand, I heard a rumour that the Ottawa Carleton Catholic School Board is going to make receiving the H1N1 vaccine mandatory for its students. Look out!
I don’t have any problem with legally compulsory vaccinations. That’s the kind of decision our democratic system is supposed to make. My problem is when it is asserted there is some kind of social or moral duty based on the pronouncements of experts.
So, you have no problem with a law passed by politicians (who else passes laws?) that forces you to inject an untested and unproven vaccine into your blood stream? But you do have a problem with experts in the healthcare and public health fields making pronouncements based on their expertise? You’ve got a lot more faith in lawmakers than I do. Less faith in experts, too.
BTW, childhood vaccinations are not entirely legally mandated. Here in SW Ontario, we’ve had some outbreaks of childhood diseases in religious communities that do not believe in vaccination. For the most part, though, the unvaccinated Mennonites are a healthy bunch.
Someone’s injecting untested vaccines? Really?
@balbulican –
Health Officials Admit Fast Tracked H1N1 Vaccines Will Not Be Tested for Safety
H1N1 vaccine not tested on Canadians before release? And where’s the data?
Thank you for the links, JB, neither of which states that the vaccines are “untested”. One indicated that it was not tested on Canadians (our biochemistry is probably similar enough to the Belgians for their test results to be valid.)
I think perhaps what you meant to say was “not tested to the point where I personally am comfortable with the findings”.
Close enough.
My 1 YO & 3 YO grandsons got the vaccine yesterday, btw.
Peter, a graph from a rightwing blog called moonbattery has no science in it to be defended. They did not have thermometers during the Middle Ages, and the only way to figure out the temperatures then is to rely on the scientists who say there is no evidence that it was hotter then than it is now, or else to pull it out of your ass, which the rightwingers do.
OK, Holly, I’ll just have to base my argument on the work of that right-wing, racist, science-denying hotbead of fear and superstition, the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.
Isn’t the point of SL’s post that the segment of the population that has taken the vaccine and the segment that has not are both doing unexpectedly well?
“…Seasonal flu epidemics typically last six to eight weeks, starting in December or January. The second wave of H1N1 appears to have begun about two weeks ago. But experts caution there isn’t a pattern that is strong enough to predict where we are with H1N1.
The World Health Organization reported Friday that “intense and persistent” flu spread continues to be reported in North America, without evidence of a peak in activity…”
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/opinion/Nation+made+wrong+call+expert/2201377/story.html
Now I’m pretty sure the second wave started in Alberta much earlier than two weeks ago, and since 5 deaths were reported in Alberta yesterday and another 4 today, I doubt that we have passed a peak yet.
Oh, and Peter, your 2003 paper by denialists Soon, Baliunas and the Idsos was refuted:
http://holocene.meteo.psu.edu/shared/articles/eos03.pdf
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/myths-vs-fact-regarding-the-hockey-stick/ see Myths #2 & 3
@Peter: My point is that the government, and the public health agencies, and the media have been hyping this flu outbreak based on the worst possible projected outcome as opposed to what a realistic outcome is likely to be.
The result of this has been a large (some would argue very large) segment of the population that is quite literally fear ridden and acting irrationally without reason – over the last couple of weeks I have had people look at me like I have two heads when they discover I am not planning to get the flu shot, and for the love of the Daghda himself I had one friend even ask me if I wasn’t afraid of dying for petes sake.
The likelihood of dying from the swine flu is low, if the likelihood was higher, or if I was in a (real) high risk group, or there was a likelihood of developing life long health complications from catching it, I would probably be joining the long lines to get my shot.
– but as none of that is the case, and, because I personally happen to believe that the testing process has not been what it should be, and because I believe that otherwise healthy people are quite capable of developing their immunities to this sort of virus all by themselves, I have made my choice.
As I have said before, this is a personal choice thing, and people should make that choice based on facts and not hype and fear.
I disagree completely – unless there is a very evident, very verifiable, and very serious public health risk, this is something that falls into the personal choice arena.
It’s not all about you, though. We’re a society and your bout with H1N1 that may go fine for you can be passed on to someone who dies from it. Adult chicken pox changed the course of my family’s life only a few years ago. There’s a vaccine for it now and I think it should be mandatory – along with measles, mumps, rubella.
Like I say, I probably won’t get the flu vaccine, but it’s really because I don’t fall into any of the at-risk categories. If public health officials were to say to the public that they think we should all get it, I’d bury my distrust of Big Pharma and rethink my position – because it would be the right thing to do.
I neither want, nor need, the state, or society, to step in and tell me I am not a good citizen because didn’t get a flu shot and therefor might get the flu and I might give it to someone else and they might get sick and they might die – do you not see that this is a simple extension of other nanny state actions where people have come to expect that the government or society somehow has a duty to protect them from what the irresponsible among us might do?
Maybe the government should mandate little breath sensors on the inside of our house and apartment doors that we blow into every morning before leaving to make sure we’re not too sick to interact with others, and if ya got a bug, and your too stupid to know that, the door won’t unlock for you — I mean, if they can do it with cars to detect drunks why not for the common cold as well?
…. people have died from the common cold too you know.
Maybe you should set up your own society.
And I think the expression “nanny state” is nonsensical. Government is for the people/by the people. My nightmare is a society run by anarchist libertarians. Square that with your circle.
My nightmare is a society run by anarchist libertarians
Yes, I’ve always enjoyed coming here and being told by an angry biker that community-based anarchism is the system of government most in my interest.
Not all public issues need be reduced to ideological first principles. The case for public health measures, including compulsory ones and including some vaccinations is so overwhelmingly proven (as is the case for registering cars) that it would be madness to assert everybody has a constitutional right to choose whether they will participate. OTOH, a crisis is a crisis and we should know by now that scientists can be addicted to crisis-predictions. Compulsory medical procedures are indeed intrusive and a violation of personal integrity. They should be the exception not the rule and the decision should be made by those accountable to us, not some tenured genius in a lab. I see this a lot in family court where judge, under the guise of what is best for the kids, will order the kids/parties into something euphemistically called “counselling” or risk losing their kids at the drop of a hat, often just to avoid making a hard decision. It’s an outrage.
Empiricsim is good.
“My point is that the government, and the public health agencies, and the media have been hyping this flu outbreak based on the worst possible projected outcome as opposed to what a realistic outcome is likely to be.”
Haven’t seen a lot of that, although I suppose it may seem that way to folks ideologically opposed to any form of intervention. The vast majority of what I’ve seen from media and public health agencies have described the range of possible outcomes (which is the only way to be “realistic”), and measures to mitigate. I suppose there’s fear-mongering going on at the edges – and of course a large portion of the population seems addicted to fear these days anyway. The need is not for a reduction in the amount of information available: it’s for better critical thinking skills when it comes to weighing science and public health policy.
That’s (unfortunately) a viewpoint shared by many who would rather someone else tell them what to do and how to do it than to simply take responsibility for themselves and their actions.
See above
I don’t have cable and I still see it all the time. Discussions about what “could” happen, who is “likely” be most affected, what the “possible” consequences of too many people like me “may” be…. followed by news stories about the few who have, most unfortunately, gone on to the other side.
I am most certainly not “ideologically opposed to any form of intervention” (I thought you didn’t like over simplifications), I am opposed to fear based public policy driven by a media more concerned with getting their segment watched than being responsible about/for what they say.
“Discussions about what “could” happen, who is “likely” be most affected, what the “possible” consequences of too many people like me “may” be…. ”
Uhh…yeah. That’s the difference between science and religion you’re seeing. Science says “this is the range of potential outcomes, and, based on our best data, the ones we judge most probable” – in other words, what “could” happen. Religion cheerfully tells you what WILL happen.
Cheerfully? I thought the rap was that religion tries to terrify everybody, make them feel guilty and keep them from having fun. C’mon, balb, after me. …and a-one and a-two…”Rawwkk of Aagggesss…”
Science says “this is the range of potential outcomes, and, based on our best data, the ones we judge most probable”
True, but then there is always that little addendum: “And if you question that judgment you are a dangerous, superstitious science-denier!!”
Looked at in that light religion and science have certainly come together Peter, they’ve even got the “if you get the shot and we’re wrong no big deal, but if you don’t, and we’re right, you’re gonna be sorry” gig going.
Sorry b, the discussions surrounding H1N1 I’ve seen in the media coming from politicians, the public health agencies, and the media themselves, lacks any real consistent reasoned scientific perspective – when was the last time you heard Harper or Aglukkaq say “yes, some may die but it’s generally a mild and less people will die from H1N1 than from the common flu“? When was the last time the public health agencies said the same?
Peter: it was a great Band album – certainly beat the listless Last Waltz all to shit – but it’s not one of my favourite hymns. Give me Blake’s “Jerusalem” or “Abide With Me” any old time.
‘True, but then there is always that little addendum: “And if you question that judgment you are a dangerous, superstitious science-denier!!’
As I said, I don’t see much of that in the pages of Science or Nature or the NEJM. I see a lot of it on blogs, of course.
@balbulican: You may want to turn on your TV or radio and have a look/listen to what the politicians, the public health agencies, and the media are saying.
“When was the last time you heard Harper or Aglukkaq say “yes, some may die but it’s generally a mild and less people will die from H1N1 than from the common flu“? When was the last time the public health agencies said the same?”
Umm…pretty much every time they address the issue. As I keep repeating, the official message is: here are the range of possible outcomes: here’s what to do to minimize your risk.
http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/alert-alerte/h1n1/faq_rg_h1n1-eng.php#faq7
… awaiting the video or text link of Harper or Aglukkaq saying “yes, some may die but it’s generally a mild and less people will die from H1N1 than from the common flu?“, I remain
yer pal
stageleft
You make a pretty nonsensical leap from me stating that “a world run by libertarian anarchists is my worst nightmare” to “that’s a viewpoint shared by many who would rather someone else tell them what to do and how to do it than to simply take responsibility for themselves and their actions”. One thing does not mean the other – except perhaps in libertariananarchistloonytoonville.
The government (the democratically elected one for which we are all responsible) is, in fact, advising citizens to take personal responsibility and get vaccinated to prevent the spread of H1N1. It has even made a priority list so that those people who should get the vaccine first are being accommodated. It is asking people to take a civilized and considerate approach in dealing with a pandemic. The government isn’t putting out alarmist propaganda, medical professionals are reporting that people with healthy immune systems are ending up in hospital on ventilators as a result of H1N1. I think people have been informing themselves in a very pro-active way. In fact, I may even reconsider my position, given that there is more and more evidence that recovery from this flu, for some of those healthy immume system people, is very slow, with fatigue and coughing lasting for weeks.
Public healthcare is all about keeping the public informed. This is an emerging pandemic – do you want the knowledge or don’t you. I do. A government keeping information from the public is what should scare you – not this.
Stage: Oh, dear. Times are dire when my good friend and blogmate are forced to resort to the Patrick Ross defense.
@balbulican: Should I take that to mean that a video link is not going to be forthcoming
A video link to specific politicians reading a line you’ve scripted? No.
A link to a non-hysterical public health source – Canada’s primary one, in fact – stating risks and mitigation in measured and science based terms has been provided. Want others?
I’ll take any senior federal politician – and I’ll be forgiving on the script as long as the message is essentially there.
Why? The Chief Public Health Officer isn’t a politician, he’s a bureaucrat tasked with communicating directly to the Canadian people about H1N1. He’s also a doctor and a proponent of vaccination programs to prevent disease. The government isn’t just about politicians, it’s about public service.