I Have A different Take On It
Buckdog has an interesting post up about why the Liberals are so gung-ho for an election these days – he believes they think they can actually win it.
I have a different take things but since leftdog isn’t allowing comments on the post so I’ll put my thoughts here.
Over the last couple of weeks, the non-Liberal prog bloggers have been watching our Liberal colleagues, running around like demented chickens anxious to lose their political heads. “Call an election!” … “Call an election!”
This seemed like mere posturing because, poll after poll, Liberal numbers have been tanking and running well behind the Conservatives. Liberals certainly are NOT poised to improve their seat numbers in the House of Commons if an election were held now, and yet, they are demanding an election.
At first I assumed that it was mere political bravado … “bring it on dude!” … “let’s go”! In the world of politics, such phony posturing is quite normal and acceptable. But something is different about Liberal calls for an election this time around. These guys actually WANT an election and believe that they will win government. Regardless of the polling numbers, regardless of the absolute lack of public agreement for an election at this time, Liberals are blind to reality and sincerely want to go to the voters.
There is that camp within the rank and file Liberal Party ranks who really do believe their man can win at least a minority government in the next election; personally I think they are deluded.
My thoughts are that Liberal party strategists know fully well that they have a very small chance of forming a minority government after the next election, but those long odds are not the reason they have ramped up the election calls, they have chosen the path they are on for a couple of different reasons:
- the Liberal brand has had the crap kicked out of it for the last year or so – party finances, political circumstance, and Dion’s personality and English language skills, put the Liberals in a very bad place and Stephen Harper did what any astute party leader would do and took full advantage of every opportunity that was provided to him.
As a result of this the party and its’ new leader absolutely must, at the very least, put on the public face of being ready, willing, and able, to confront the Conservative party at the polls before the party faithful become more demoralized than they already are simply stay home at the next election call.
- the Liberal Party believes (mistakenly IMO) that if Canada has an election and Stephen Harper and the Conservatives only achieves another minority government that either:
- * the Conservative Party will dump Harper because he cannot give them the majority they want; or,
- * Stephen Harper will resign either in frustration, or before the party shows him the door.
Both of which are, in my opinion, faint hopes.
leftdog seems to think current Liberal posturing has the potential to trip Canadians into electing a majority Conservative Party government at the next election, I doubt it, the next government will be another Conservative minority.
The big questions Liberals have to answer are
- are they willing to put in the time in Opposition that the next election is likely to result in without chucking their current leader for failing them, going into a leadership convention, and by doing so give the CPoC more fodder for the subsequent campaign, and
- is their leader willing to put in the time as Leader of the Opposition that the next election is likely to keep him in without giving up and going elsewhere, and by doing so give the CPoC more fodder for the subsequent campaign
Unless the answer to both questions is “yes” Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party only have to be patient enough to last for one more minority government stint, after which they will have the majority they both want.
They believe their own press – which is unusual for Liberals. I guess they’ve lost their balance from being out of power too long. What will actually happen in the event of another Conservative minority, is that the Liberals will cooperate with the NDP and the Bloc to form the government.
I’m never wrong about these things, by the way.
I’m with Sooey, but I’ve been wrong about these things – better check my tea leaves again – good day all.
Yeah its all posturing and any mention of a majority by any party, imho, absolutely requires the context that its essentially no longer possible in Canada.
With a united right maintaining its hold on the West, Libs and New Democrats winning urban Canada every election and a Bloc that consistently wins the majority of Quebec seats, either the Cons or the Libs would have to essentially run the table in Ontario to win a majority. Can’t be done.
Things change in the West or Quebec or we have one minority government after another until they do. That’s the bottom line.
Buckdog is just framing away, partisan that he is.
They certainly risked an election and they do want one before the Spring, specifically, before the Olympics, and before the budget. Both will otherwise be used by Harper effectively to gain the few more points he needs for a majority.
If Ignatieff cannot raise his profile with voters before then, Harper will have a majority, it is believed.
As a result, the Liberals risked an early election call in order to re-arrange the dynamics of Parliament. They want to become the default ABC party, in the least. Next, they are trying to lead the polls, that is, to focus their energy into creating an image voters will be attracted to. Primarily, Iggy wants Conservative votes. Every vote Harper loses to Iggy, is the same as gaining two votes from elsewhere. But he has to prevent losing votes to the NDP, which Harper is trying to facilitate with things like the EI table scrap he recently threw at Jack. Framing Jack as helping Harper stay in power is supposed to attract soft left swing voters back to the Liberal fold.
After this week, Iggy is now supposed to be the ‘go to’ person for opposition to Harper. That will raise his profile and simplify his message. Next, Harper’s big ad buy (5 million) making coalitions ’scary’ is now neutralized, and sets Harper up as hypocritical. (Are those ads still running?) Next, there’s Iggy in those Narnia ads. Yes, we all criticize them, but these things work, much like attack ads work while being loathed. In conjunction with those ads, Iggy should start behaving like a government in waiting. Idea is to push the polls differently while leaving the opposition pack behind. Harper’s momentum is unclear. He seems to have some in Ontario, but Ontario has been a yo-yo. If Iggy can build momentum, he may achieve a minority Liberal Parliament, where he can then dole out the goodies, while the Conservative camp falls into disarray as it looks (hopefully) for a new leader.
If the Liberals are to achieve power again, they either had to have the week we just had, or wait for something to fall from heaven, like an Adscam. If you want power — and political parties are supposed to want that — you have to act, often boldly.
Look at Harper. it’s worked for him, and he’s a complete jerk. if you look at it that way, Iggy has a chance.
Whooee! As I recall, back when Prince Igor first drew the line in the sand, the Libs an’ Cons were pretty much neck’n'neck in the polls. That changed almost immediately on accounta Canajuns don’t see any point in spendin’ another $300,000,000 on an election that ain’t liklely to deliver results much different than the last election; especially when the last election didn’t deliver results that were much different than the one before that.
Once IgMan came out with all his bluster, he couldn’t very well back down, even if the polls had turned decisively against him. Lucky for Iggy, the polls were also lookin’ bad fer the Dippers an’ Jack showed he’d do anything to avoid an election.
King Steve is in the catbird seat. He’s the one who really wants an election but he already pulled the trigger early last year. He can watch the Libs and Dippers squirm and blame them for the threat of an election while he taunts them with attack ads and unpalatable legislation that they must accept lest they trigger the unwanted election and suffer at the polls that count: the ballot box.
I wonder how many body bags or flu shots we could buy for $300,000,000? How many starving Guatemalans could we feed?
Cliff is on the money a hunnert per cent’s worth wrt the perpetual minorities we’re gonna have from here on out. What has to happen is that the minority in power needs to learn to compromise and accept the fact that they represent fewer than half of Canajuns. They need to either work with the opposition or there’s gonna be a coalition and Canajuns are gonna hafta learn a thing or two about parliamentary democracy.
JB
Well, this summer was not good. The Conservatives completely sabotaged the EI working group. Working with them is silly. Harper is just biding his time until he knows a majority is in reach.
It’s not clear what caused the polls to shift. They have been quite volatile. There’s a few months to go in this gambit.
Fortune favours the bold… Though not always…
Keep in mind that there are many examples of parties behind in the polls coming up to win elections. One of the clearest was MIke Harris in 1995, AND in 1998. He was actually trailing Dalton when he called the 1998 election. And he won another majority.
Most Canadians don’t want a minority government with Harper in control. That’s not how they vote.
The Liberals, I think, are gaming to be in charge even of a minority parliament.
I think the alternative will be four years of a Harper majority starting this Spring. Harper may find the extra votes in Ontario for a small majority stake. For some, that’s worth $300 million to avoid. Regardless we’re likely going to be spending it within a year.
Funny enough, I’m likely voting NDP in my riding. It’s a safe Liberal seat still and I think the NDP could use the little extra cash my vote will bring. Certainly, Iggy isn’t worth my vote. Not yet, anyway.
Reality
In late January 2009 Liberals declined going to the Polls and supported the budget. Why 2008 numbers (finances, members,polls). MI was unwilling to risk an election. In June 2009 he again demostrated no will to test the polls. (Same as 2008)
Sept 1, 2009 another declaration (Polls +3% from October 2008, $ 6 million/6 months, 100k members) So if this is going to be the high water mark? The Liberals took time to improve their position and will now exploit the NDP who spent in BC,NS provincial elections. It is fair to exploit each other lack of preparedness to fight a national campaign.
If a national campaign will cost $ 20 million are the Liberals prepared? No. In 2008 they had debts around $ 2-4 million. In 2009 they erased that debts but have very little to mount a sustained tv campaign. In the last six months of 2009 if they match they will have raised $ 12 million in total. Problem is CPC raised over $ 22 million with small donations. The Liberals have raised their funds from Big Fish who can not provide more funds for balance of 2008. The Liberals never pulled the plug because they were unprepared or unwilling. Why would anyone expect the NDP to fall on their own sword for the benefit of the other parties? Principles? The Government will continue to stay in power and ride through the global recession and untill each party in opposition is prepared to face the polls we have no election. Why risk the wrath of losing MP’s? Only the Liberals stand to gain 20 seats.
I have a funny feeling that, barring scandal, we’re doomed to a fuckface… er, Harper majority no matter when we straggle into the polls in dismally small numbers. That’s my gut (curdling) instinct. My informal observation on the reaction to Ignatieff as leader runs the gamut from blase to disdain. Outside of partisan bloggers, I’ve yet to meet anyone that shows the least enthusiasm about the guy or the current batch of Liberals. Every week I go out to lunch with friends at a great little place that provides a meat & potatoes sample of the public. When the so called Narnia ads were released the freaks at our table got into an animated discussion with the contractor/small business guys at the next table. The mutual point of agreement was that Iggy came off as totally insincere. The left of centre artsies met the right of centre capitalists half way, none of us trusted Ignatieff. The Liberals ramping up the election rhetoric is not winning any friends either.
I want my lesser of two evils to be a good deal lesser than the current offer thanks. For the first time ever, I’ve read impolitical and thought, she’s either towing that party line like a champ or she really is deluded. The longer we go without an election is the longer we can be sure that Harper isn’t in a majority position. As soon as the writ drops I think that possibility is all too frighteningly in play. At this point a coalition is likely the best chance we have for reasonable governance but it seems unlikely given the players.
Perhaps the Liberals were relying on the Bloc or the NDP ensuring that there actually would be no election while Iggy would show himself as standing up to the Conservatives and at the same time able to heckle the NDP and Harper for getting help from “socialists and separatists”. However this tactic may work only for the first couple of votes.
When the Liberals have a chance to move their own non-confidence motion in the Harper government both the NDP and Bloc may support it. To me it makes sense that the NDP not help defeat the Conservatives on EI. Although the EI reforms do not go far enough at least it is best to pass them and also the home improvement legislation before defeating the government. The real test will come on the Liberal non-confidence motion.
I think the Liberals made themselves look like idiots with that “socialists and separatistes” nonsense when they could have differentiated themselves from the New Conservatives instead. It’ll be particularly hilarious when they do an about face and team up with the fearsome twosome to defeat the next minority Conservative government.
The mutual point of agreement was that Iggy came off as totally insincere.
A politician, insincere? Shocking!
Tell me what did the right wingers think of Blue Sweater Steve?
The sad fact is that both major parties are only interested in the small margin of voters who won’t think about their vote until election day and that decision will be based on what they can remember about current events from the previous day. Which isn’t much.
Not that I’d characterize those guys as right wingers per se, they’re certainly on the right of centre. That said, big Steve didn’t have a cheerleader at either table. Seems to me that there is very little excitement or care for any of the political class at this time. None of the business guys thought an election made any sense either. Who knew that a uniting factor in the populace would be an overall weariness with our politics and politicians.
The stupider our current national politics gets, the less I pay attention.
I think the MP’s and Laurier Club members who appointed Iggy are now beginning to regret it. If they aren’t, they should be.