Coalition or “Coalition”, That is the Question
As the junior contributor to this fine institution (Stageleft), please take any predictions from this writer with a grain of salt. So here it is, when Parliament resumes on January 26, a “coalition” will have power, but it won’t be the one we have been hearing so much about over the last few weeks. Rather, when Michael Ignatieff takes the helm of the Liberal Party in the next couple of weeks, he will appear to support the Liberal, NDP and Bloc alliance but not too strongly. Behind the scenes, he will broker a deal with Prime Minister Harper to keep the government alive for an extended period of time based on some of Ignatieff’s and Liberal Party demands. We will have a “coalition” but it will be between the Conservatives and Liberals. It will present the appearance that Ignatieff is a true leader willing to put aside the current squabbles in our dysfunctional Parliament for the betterment of the country (and his political aspirations to be Prime Minister).
To make that work Harper would have to do an almost complete personality and economic about face in a very short period of time.
Ignatieff could probably pull it off, but I’m not sure Harper could. He may come out of this little parliamentary time out acting like he wants to work with the other parties but his base is not going to be too happy with the amount of money he has to spend to keep up that appearance – and we also have to remember that if Ignatieff does take the reigns of the LPoC Harper is going to have to attack hard and fast of he has any hope of further bolstering his minority in the next general election.
… and after p*ssing off Ontario & Quebec the way he did over the last few weeks that’s gonna be a difficult task.
The way I see it, Harper will have little choice and a pact with the Liberals is easily the best option compared to the NDP “socialists”. He hasn’t got a shred of credibility in Quebec or with the Bloc at this point so that cannot happen. Ignatieff comes out looking like the statesman and the government lives. Both he and Harper appear to be above the partisan bickering. It’s a win win politically speaking and they both save face and move on.
This may not bode well for your prediction but I’m sure you’re right.
Nope, Harper can’t do this, he has to force an election. Harper can not tear down Iggy while taking warm political showers with him and the Liberal Party at the same time.
Harper has Hooped himself in the power play, snookered. He needs an election and fast, if the GG tries to allow the Coalition to rule, Harper will fire her on the spot.
Say how long can Harper go without appointing a new GG by the way? Mark and I were talking about this, and we don’t think there is any rule that Harper has to appoint a new GG ASAP, he could wait a year before appointing a GG.
Zorpheous said…”Harper has Hooped himself in the power play, snookered. He needs an election and fast, if the GG tries to allow the Coalition to rule, Harper will fire her on the spot”…
Harper can do that,fire the GG therefore voiding anything she might have recommend ?
No, Harper cannot fire the GG anymore than the British PM can change the monarch. The PM appoints (gives “advice” to HM), but the term is fixed.
Zorph,
An election is a possibility but I believe it is secondary to making a deal with the Liberals. Harper’s play to Prorogue was to bet that the coalition will not last the six weeks until Parliament sits again. Given that a new Liberal leader is all but a certainty, this is exactly what Harper hoped for, actually it was his last chance in this whole drama.
Harper wants to keep power, he has been strident on this – he believes he has a mandate from the people. Making a deal with an new Liberal leader is the only way he can do this. He will save face and only have to provide moderate concessions in the budget (compared to what the NDP or Bloc would demand).
TH: “He will save face and only have to provide moderate concessions in the budget (compared to what the NDP or Bloc would demand). ”
Please. This kind of statement makes me crazy. The “coalition” “demanded” “action” on the “crisis” similar to “what Obama is proposing.”
Obama can propose all he wants, but can do squat until Jan. 20. The CPC fiscal update specifically stated that a budget (you know, the real, BIG money bill that happens every year, like clockwork, in the spring) would address those big issues, most importantly AFTER the new administration is in place in the US. Canada and other countries, including the US, agreed to coordinate any stimulus or other economy-fix plans. You can’t do that UNTIL the friggin’ elephant shows their cards.
The “coalition” was about power. That people who do not support the CPC government are OKAY with a party that every elected MP SIGNED AGREEMENT with the COALITION of OPPOSITION PARTIES may just… walk away from that signed agreement that was guaranteed to last for a minimum of 18 months… can still vote for any of those parties? is why the GG gave Harper his prorogue.
Because if your word is not your bond, and your signature is not your bond, then why the hell should I believe (or vote for) anything you say, today, is “true” and “important” and “imperative” and etc etc etc?
And before you pull out the “The Alliance was willing” and “the CPC have been supported by the Bloc” and “the CPC have voted with the Bloc” – those are on case by case, bill by bill issues.
Those were not blanket “we will support you for the next … however long” and that, my friend, is the big difference. Canadians are not idiots. We understand the basic concepts of our government and how it works, and we understand the basic concepts of how minority governments survive. We also understand and recognize pure, unadulterated BS when we see it (looked at any polls lately?).