One of the most popular arguments intermittently pooted forth by creationists (and their pseudoscientific sock puppets, the Intelligent Design Brigade) is the observation that life on earth exists within a tiny band of probability, supported by just the right range of temperatures, just the right percentage of oxygen, just the right balance of available carbon, and so on. Its most recent iteration comes from the delightfully childlike “The Way The Ball Bounces” (whose previous arguments for the existence of God have included the existence of the Bible - a wonderful recursion that, as JJ observed, could also be used to prove the existence of homicidal clowns named Pennywise).

Mr. Bouncy Ball argues with Aristotelian rigour that “…the conditions required to support life are improbable beyond our comprehension. God is a much easier and more probable response than “chance”.” In other words, in trying to decide whether:
a) a giant, invisible, eternal, unknowable Thingie created an entire universe as a complicated machine programmed to generate a workable setting for our carbon based, oxygen breathing life form for mysterious purposes, OR
b) observable laws of physics and probability operated in their usual way,

…Mr. Bouncy Ball gleefully picks “A”. (There are other reasons, of course. Including the fact that the Bible says “A”. But I digress.)

Now, I somehow doubt Mr. Bouncy Ball is amenable to persuasion on this point. Let’s face it; the Bible has a much bigger fan base than Stageleft at this point. But for those who experience even a twinge of unease when contemplating the supreme unlikelihood of a life-appropriate planet emerging by chance, consider this.

If I were to toss a dart at the Earth from space, it would land somewhere on the surface of the planet.
- The odds in favour of it landing on the planet are nearly 100%.
- The odds of it landing on any one specific square millimeter of the planet are approximately
510,065,600,000,000,000,000 to one.
- Nevertheless, despite those incredible, astonishing, inconceivable odds, it WILL land on one of those square millimeters.

One can picture the microscopic residents of that unfortunate millimeter of stricken earth huddling together in their tiny chapels and mosques and synagogues. Their nanopreachers will no doubt explain the catastrophe as retribution from Big Skyguy for their lack of faith; some will exhort their microflock to view it as a test of their belief. But all will triumphantly point to this event as proof positive of the existence of Big Skyguy: after all, the odds against this being a random event were 510,065,600,000,000,000,000 to one!!! (Add exclamation points as required.)

Here’s the point. Any process involving the interaction of multiple random variables will immediately begin to yield outcomes. The longer the process runs, the more the potential outcomes, and the greater the odds against any given, predicted outcome occurring. But those outcomes will occur, in time. The odds are against you throwing a double six: but you will. The odds against you throwing a thousand double sixes in a row are astronomical; but given enough time, you will.

h/t to the Sure-To-Spend-Eternity-In-Hell Canadian Cynic.