Creationists In Vegas
One of the most popular arguments intermittently pooted forth by creationists (and their pseudoscientific sock puppets, the Intelligent Design Brigade) is the observation that life on earth exists within a tiny band of probability, supported by just the right range of temperatures, just the right percentage of oxygen, just the right balance of available carbon, and so on. Its most recent iteration comes from the delightfully childlike “The Way The Ball Bounces” (whose previous arguments for the existence of God have included the existence of the Bible – a wonderful recursion that, as JJ observed, could also be used to prove the existence of homicidal clowns named Pennywise).
Mr. Bouncy Ball argues with Aristotelian rigour that “…the conditions required to support life are improbable beyond our comprehension. God is a much easier and more probable response than “chance”.” In other words, in trying to decide whether:
a) a giant, invisible, eternal, unknowable Thingie created an entire universe as a complicated machine programmed to generate a workable setting for our carbon based, oxygen breathing life form for mysterious purposes, OR
b) observable laws of physics and probability operated in their usual way,
…Mr. Bouncy Ball gleefully picks “A”. (There are other reasons, of course. Including the fact that the Bible says “A”. But I digress.)
Now, I somehow doubt Mr. Bouncy Ball is amenable to persuasion on this point. Let’s face it; the Bible has a much bigger fan base than Stageleft at this point. But for those who experience even a twinge of unease when contemplating the supreme unlikelihood of a life-appropriate planet emerging by chance, consider this.
If I were to toss a dart at the Earth from space, it would land somewhere on the surface of the planet.
- The odds in favour of it landing on the planet are nearly 100%.
- The odds of it landing on any one specific square millimeter of the planet are approximately
510,065,600,000,000,000,000 to one.
- Nevertheless, despite those incredible, astonishing, inconceivable odds, it WILL land on one of those square millimeters.
One can picture the microscopic residents of that unfortunate millimeter of stricken earth huddling together in their tiny chapels and mosques and synagogues. Their nanopreachers will no doubt explain the catastrophe as retribution from Big Skyguy for their lack of faith; some will exhort their microflock to view it as a test of their belief. But all will triumphantly point to this event as proof positive of the existence of Big Skyguy: after all, the odds against this being a random event were 510,065,600,000,000,000,000 to one!!! (Add exclamation points as required.)
Here’s the point. Any process involving the interaction of multiple random variables will immediately begin to yield outcomes. The longer the process runs, the more the potential outcomes, and the greater the odds against any given, predicted outcome occurring. But those outcomes will occur, in time. The odds are against you throwing a double six: but you will. The odds against you throwing a thousand double sixes in a row are astronomical; but given enough time, you will.
h/t to the Sure-To-Spend-Eternity-In-Hell Canadian Cynic.
Well, I disagree that the Universe is fine tuned “for life”. After all, as Neil deGrasse Tyson points out, the vast majority of the universe – with supernova, gamma ray bursts, etc – is expressly NOT supportive of life as we know it.
If that’s “fine tuned” its a piss poor job.
I think that’s why so many of these folks are big on home schooling and rigorous control of school curricula. It’s a point of view that really can’t withstand very much critical thought or actual data…which makes the whole premise of “Expelled” so hilarious.
(brat) Dude. Not to question your wicked math skillz, but I think shooting darts from space might have less than 100% chance of happening if it were, y’know, free throws. You could pretty easily skip that dart right off the atmosphere and hit something else entirely if you got the attack angle wrong, and would the dart make it through re-entry? Those folks in Houston moved to a blunt nose re-entry style for some, likely important, reason. (/brat)
…. however, since the generation of ameobas likely weren’t based on your dart throwing skills, I’m with you for the rest of the allegory.
Sigh. Okay, it’s a special dart with heat shields and stuff.
[...] quite enjoyed my visit the other day to “The Way the Ball Bounces”, described here. The writer, one Richard K. Ball, appears to be a good natured chap (which you would have to be, [...]
Damn, Arwen beat me to it! That must be one expensive Dart Balby
Could be Zeus and a thunderbolt…that works well with the analogy, no?
Are you back from Coz?
Ya, I’m back, only went for week this summer, just missed TS Dolly. Check out the Wingnuterer all this week and next, got some AWESOME Photographs this year. I nearly got the perfect turtle shot, so close,… so very very close to perfection,… oh well,… maybe next time
Christmas and New Years to honest,… yup Cath and I are going to spend Christmas in Coz, want to come?
By the why, you up for doing Lock #21 this summer or do you know some good shore diving in your area? I’m getting a new 8″ dome for the housing so I fit my 18mm too 135mm lens. That ya I can shot wide angle and macro witha twist of a knob.
@Zorpheous – Lock 21 is a lousy shore dive for pix, there’s nothing there but current and bad viz. Three popular shore dives in our strip are the Conestoga, the Rothsea, and a little wreck at the Prescott docks, all with decent photo ops. Does it have to be shore? Good boat dives out of Brockville and Rockport every week. Or the Keystorm and American – very cool shots.
Well, if you do any of those dives let me know and I’ll load up the bike and come visit Zorpheous, it’s only an hour or so away. I’ll guard the boat and the beer while you guys and underwater …. it’ll all be there when ya get back …. honest
Sometime in August I think would be best. Do we still have to check in with US Customs before Diving the Keystorm? I rememer having to do that in 2003, and it was a real pain. You know how dangerous those Scuba Diving Taliban Terrors are.
Keystorm, America and Vickary are all on the US side, and yeah, you need a passport. It adds between 1-3 hours to the trip. Some good ones on the Canadian side…done the Daryaw?
Done all of them before and stop going to them after having to deal with the BS of Customs. But I understand the concerns of the Americans, after all, we all know how dangerous that Scuba Diving Al Queda Terrorists are, LOL
Exactly. Heck, they might blow up a wreck.