Dangerously Deluded
Rumours and rumours of rumours about the Bush administration launching an attack on Iran before the new president gets sworn in are sprinkled here and there in the media and the blog0sphere – personally I think if he gives that order someone should take him quietly aside, slip a hood over his head, put him on a plane for Diego Garcia and points beyond, apologize to the world for his stupidity, and then offer to help clean up the mess.
Lets look at his military actions to date.
Afghanistan: US attacks on October 7, 2001…. almost 7 years later the job still is not finished.
Iraq: US invades on March 19, 2003…. more than 5 years later the job still is not done.
– and neither of those countries had an actual, physical, functioning, army.
Now he’s contemplating Iran? Give me a break, they do have an army, and they do have an air force, and they do have a navy… and (most importantly) they are not beat up and broke from 7 years of fighting wars on foreign soil, and the Iranian people (not that their government would actually care) haven’t watched their own coming home dead, or crippled and maimed in wheel chairs.
And who is going to go in with him? Just who is gonna hang their country out there after the grand screw up in Iraq?
(The obvious answer to that one is Israel – and wouldn’t that make a total f’ing mess of the whole region……)
If Bush thinks that he can do it with the help of Ethiopia, Iceland, and Azerbaijan, someone needs to make sure there is a hood (or some serious tranquilizers in a sharp needle) at the ready every time he gets ready to open his yop between now and the day his replacement is sworn in.
Sorry George, we know you have delusions of grandeur, but the simple fact is that the United States cannot, in its’ current military circumstance, its’ political and economic climate, and with the military allies it could gather for the attack, possibly hope to win a war with Iran….. if you want a win on your score sheet before you leave there’s always Tuvalu; less than 12,000 people on 9 square miles of islands that are sinking into the ocean, you need a success, and they’ll soon need a new home – think about it.
My bet is that these “rumours” are just wishful thinking from some hawks here and there and maybe even from within the Pentagon. They could also be part of the usual “leaks” to the media to send a message to Iran that the US is contemplating such a move to keep the Iranians in check even though they are not.
Given the States currently military commitments, I really doubt that they could afford to launch even a strategic air attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iran’s logical response would likely include attacking US interests and turning their attention to Iraq full time. The latter would involve a serious fight on the ground and the US does not have the troops available to wage such a campaign.
See what I mean
Not a lot of comparison between Iraqs Al Hussein SCUD missiles that had a range of about 650 km and were …. ahem …. somewhat less than accurate is there?
And who is really surprised at this response
… while they are busy sprinkling missiles with inter-continental range around the globe.
As an avid reader of Gwynne Dyer’s and Juan Cole’s I suspect you are quite correct in assessing the futility of the USA trying to win an invasion war – or any proxy regional war – against Iran. But that is never the point, really. The neocons have goals in the region that don’t necessarily require winning a war in the traditional sense. Perhaps what they’re really after is simply the occupation of territory with troops and permanent bases in the region that prop up puppet governments fighting a long but losing battle against guerilla forces.
Maintaining the war machine economy (what else isn’t being manufactured in China after all?) through new sales of high-tech armaments to various countries also requires a show of air force bombardment at regular intervals. Iran’s dug-in nuclear research infrastructure is just the sort of thing the arms producers and distributors want to prove their latest toys can destroy. With the accelerating pace of technology, these showcases have been coming up at increasingly shorter intervals. It’s all marketing, baby, and Obama won’t be able to stop this historic trend either (assuming he truly wants to).
So look for that long-awaited air campaign, if nothing else, before Dubya leaves office. The American empire’s days are numbered one way or another.
“neither of those countries had an actual, physical, functioning, army”
Well Iraq did, however it’s army just quickly crumbled before the American onslaught(air power) lacking the fighting spirit to defend a murderous dictator to a glorious death. But I nitpick.
Other than that, yes, for sure, The USA would be biting off more than it could chew at this point in time. No argument there.
So are you ok with Iran getting the A bomb? If not, you think UN santions will work in preventing this happening?
That genie is already out of the bottle.
“So are you ok with Iran getting the A bomb? If not, you think UN santions will work in preventing this happening?”
For what it’s worth, I’m as ok with Iran getting the A-bomb as any other country getting the A-Bomb. USA, Soviets, China, Israel, India, Pakistan…who’s to say who should be allowed to have one? It’s idiotic and extremely deadly weaponry to begin with. To play devil’s advocate, isn’t it a bit hypocritical for the US, being the only country to ever drop an A-bomb on an enemy city, to try to prevent others from having the technology?
The expected response is “but they said they want to wipe Israel off the map”, I know. But I’m operating under the assumption that Ahmadinejad is not pulling the strings and that he is just a loudmouth. The real powers that be in Iran do not want to get their asses kicked by the rest of the world by attacking Israel, with or without Nuclear weapons.
This is simply a case of the biggest kid on the block, and their smaller cousin, feeling threated because their nemesis might have access to the same weaponry they have had FOR DECADES.
All the evidence points to Iran developing a nuclear energy program, not the bomb. I have no doubt that they wouldn’t mind having a nuke or two in the arsenal but at this point everything says they are looking at powering light bulbs.
I do not think that Ahmadinejad is fanatical enough to pull the trigger first, the international response would be massive, and he knows it.
If either America or Israel decides to pull the trigger first they will be alone, their enemies will be clapping their hands with glee, and taking immediate advantage of the situation to further their particular goals – and you can safely bet your first born that the nuclear option will be used by at least one of them in trying to pull their ass out of the fire they started.
Throbbin:
–Of course, you being the barking leftist dog that you are, of course you would have no problem with religious fanatics getting the nuke bombs.
–That goes for the rest of you idiots as well.
–Love that term, “barking leftist dog”
Ummmm….. too late, there are some who already do. They’re just not the ones you’re thinking of.