10 / 1 Eh?
According to this article on point-spreads.com BetUS.com is offering 10/1 odds that Florida will be under water before 12/31/2011 as a result of global warming.
The odds are longer for places like Manhattan or Cape Cod, but they are being offered – it’s heartening to see this, people don’t bet on things that don’t exist….. and the fact that the professional odds makers only give Florida those odds of being above sea level 5 years from now also speaks volumes, it’s unlikely they offered them on a whim.
While we’re on the subject of climate change, CFRA talk radio host Mark Sutcliffe (sitting in for Lowell Green) is using todays weather in the NCR (we woke up to snow followed by rain) as proof that global warming/climate change is a joke – maybe he’s willing to take the BetUS odds makers up on their offer.
Dude. Seriously? This guy’s ‘disproving’ global warming with one day of local weather?
Can we feed him to the polar bears, I wonder?
I wouldn’t say that it was heartening to see this. Hopefully, it never comes to this. But I would say to the other side, if this _does_ happen, can we at least agree that we have a problem?
By 2011?!?
Sounds like some folks are going to lose some of their money.
I couldn’t follow the links to see the actual odds at betus.com or to see if they were actually taking bets ( Due to jurisdictional legalities, we are unable to permit residents of Canada to open an account at this time. Sorry for the inconvinience. ). I’m willing to bet you can’t actually place that bet.
It depends keving, Florida is not exactly what you would call a mountainous region, a quick search on how far above sea level Florida actually is yields things like
If you’re barely above sea level and sea level rises much at all the outlook would be fairly bleak don’t ya think?
It does beg the question though, what would the odds makers consider as “under”? Obviously the oceans are not going to rise 105m and cover the highest point of land they have, but if the majority of the place became unlivable, or salt water intruded far enough inland to make the citrus crops unprofitable, would they pay out?
The island of Tuvalu is one of the first nations I heard of to have to deal with this issue
The good folks in Florida do have an advantage over the people of Tuvalu. The rest of the country is unlikely to tell them, we’re really sorry your state is sinking, and it must suck to be you, but no, there’s no room here for you, why not try Cuba, they’re close.
– ain’t western society wonderful?
I understand GHG induced climate change and the probably consequences fairly well. That’s why the ‘underwater’ by 2012 stood out as absurd. A sea level rise of a few centimeters by 2012 won’t put Florida underwater without an extremely creative definition of underwater.
The link you supplied re: Tuvalu, dates from 2001. However, in 2006, the Tuvaluian prime minister said that relocation off the islands wasn’t a priority.
http://www.tuvaluislands.com/news/archives/2006/2006-02-21.htm
While all parties within Tuvalu seem cautious about the idea of evacuation, it looks like Fiji has been added to the mix as a possible site.
http://www.pacificmagazine.net/news/2006/02/21/fiji-political-parties-cautious-on-tuvalu-kioa-plan
So, still a serious issue, but not immediately pressing. Which can be frustrating when you’re trying to convince people to move on it.
This guy’s ‘disproving’ global warming with one day of local weather? Can we feed him to the polar bears, I wonder?
Hey Arwen, can you stick around? I want you and your pet polar bear to be ready to nab the next granola-crunching moron that pens a letter to the Redmonton Urinal the next time we get three days in December where you can start your car on the first try, or the daytime high on July 17th beats the previous high set in 1907. Global warming nutsos have been “using todays weather” every day* for a decade and some change. And now the same argument doesn’t go both ways? Give me a break.
* Every day, that is, that the weather fits the “global warming eco-disaster” story. The rest of the time we’re supposed to remember the days that the narrative was coherent rather than do something helpful like look out the window.
As for this BetUS.com site, in lieu of cash payment, can I bet my Kyoto credits? That way if I lose I don’t lose anything of value, and if I win I get… a thank-you letter from the manager of the Chinese power plant I just donated to? Score!
“And now the same argument doesn’t go both ways? Give me a break.”
It’s a bad argument whichever side uses it.