Obama To Run for President
Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois jumped in the 2008 White House race on Tuesday, promising to bring Americans together and “change our politics” with a campaign that could make him the first black president in U.S. history.
Get ready for what I’m sure will be the filthiest and stupidest Presidential campaign in American history.
I’ve already been to one American website (Canadian Sentinel’s spiritual cousin, no doubt) whose author argued that to vote for someone whose name was only different from “OSAMA” by ONE LETTER would be treason.
(Whooee!) Obama will need to get the nomination before the real dirt will fly. I’ll be interested in seeing how much comes from Senator Clinton’s direction.
I’ve seen negative references to Obama’s middle name, too: Hussein. There’s also supposedly some problem in the black community in that he’s not a descendant of slaves.
Not black enough, not American enough, not enough experience… We’re already getting plenty of negativity and it’s come before he even declared.
The Dems need to run a winning ticket. To paraphrase Robert Gates, a Democratic loss in 2008 would be a calamity. It would legitimize every wrong decision ever made by the Bush administration. I’m not sure Obama can win in 2008 USA. As much as I’d like to think otherwise, Americans will not elect a black man to their highest office.
I like Edwards and he’s already been the target of the Repug smear campaign as Kerry’s running mate. I think an Edwards-Obama ticket might work with Obama for VP.
If Colin Powell runs for the Republicans, all bets are off.
James Robert
Obama takes first step toward presidential run
Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois said Tuesday he is taking the initial step in a presidentia
“Americans will not elect a black man to their highest office”
I hate to say it but I really doubt they would elect a woman either.
If he runs, wouldn’t it be easier for the FBI to arrest him for 9/11?
“As much as I’d like to think otherwise, Americans will not elect a black man to their highest office.”
I hadn’t thought about that, but this morning the Globe and Mail reported that since the Reconstruction, the US has only ever elected three black senators.
I was watching a Fox News feed from Boston yesterday and their political analyst said that one of Obama’s biggest hurdles was his last name (too close to Osama), and his middle name (Hussein). Good to see that people are looking at the real substantive issues.
Dammit, the American people HAVE to get back to debating issues of principle…like forty year old war records.
I saw Barak Obama’s Democratic National Convention speech, and the man knows how to use rhetoric in a way that I feel is utterly unparalleled in recent American political history. He’s done very, very well with the Republican voters in Illinois. I think he may, in fact, have a chance; although with the debt, and the war, and the greater and greater divide in class, and the sinking class mobility, and the exploding housing bubble tanking the economy, and the extreme racial tension building in the States right now, I think *anyone* next elected is in for a rough ride with no chance for upside. They’ll be wishing for a sex scandal.
I read a study that showed that women are more likely to be given positions of power in companies that are sinking. The cynic in me thinks that a black person or a woman will be choice for president, because they’ll be given the Titanic after it hit the iceburg.
The US federal government spending deficit is on track to zero out (ie. move into surplus) sometime during the summer of 2008 (it has held that track for a few months now) unless spending is increased or revenues fall. I suppose perceptions of class and race tensions are personal. The only difficult-to-manage issue I see is the war.
Class mobility is measurable. There’s a good series in the NYTimes, and another in the Economist, should you wish to look the data up.
The housing market and its economic effect is, of course, my own prediction, bolstered by various economists and market watchers. In the States it is hard to read about the market in the MSM without them referencing the bleating of Lereah at the NAR, – an association comprised of Realtors, whose objectivity just may be compromised, and who keep calling the bottom every month – but there are a growing number of (legit) economists who are watching the ker-blam rather worriedly… And the business pages are beginning to reflect that. My own sense: much of the recent economic engine in the states has been fueled by real estate (check Calculated Risk’s blog for a library of sources.) The beginning of the sub-prime ARM refinancing is going to start playing out this year: all the house-as-ATM retail sector spending is at risk, as are the real estate, homebuilding, and renovating related jobs that were created during the boom.
As for racial tensions, well, if you can’t see them, let me not burst your bubble.
One of the reasons I’m not providing the links is that I’ve gone round the ‘net trying to find anything that suggests a zero deficit by 2008. The white house’s own projections don’t seem to make that claim.
Considering that the deficit has been going up all 2006, I’m not sure out of what hat an $8 and a half trillion dollar rabbit is going to pop. Care to clarify?
I too would be interested in a link to the zero deficit by 2008 IrC, and after making that request I’ll just check to see if everyone understands the difference between a governments annual deficit and its’ accumulated debt – don’t laugh, I’ve met people who don’t.
Here’s the link I used today (via Instapundit):
http://tigerhawk.blogspot.com/2007/01/federal-deficit-is-going-away.html
This is the second time I’ve read about the projected date; there were a few blog discussions about the trend last summer (predicting approximately the same zero-out date, ie. summer 2008). I’m skeptical all the required conditions will hold (no increased spending, no significant changes to tax rates, no significant economic upturns or downturns) for another 18 months, but I was surprised today to learn the trend was still holding after 6 months.
Just getting a deficit to zero is an important first step. Voters can become resigned to deficit spending, but once budgets are in surplus it can be hard to convince voters not to at least nibble away at accumulated debt.
Having looked at those series, I can see that there is a mobility difference. I also see that education is considered a significant factor – perhaps the most important one. I observe that the US public education system is one that has been inflicted on it by its own advocates: the educators themselves. It’s also worth noting that income distributions in most west European nations are more highly clustered near the middle. It takes smaller increases in income to propel more people into higher mobility n-tiles under those distributions (draw a shallow and broad and a deep and narrow curve and divide areas under the curves into 4 or 5 or whatever approximately equal amounts to see what I mean). I can’t say that’s necessarily a significant influence, but it also can’t be dismissed out of hand.
I can see racial tensions, but I’m not convinced they’re much worse than any other period of the past forty years.
Ah. *Annual* deficit zeroed by summer 2008? Okay, I buy that. I think I’m one of those ones SL is laughing at: I read you as making a statement about debt (since that’s what I originally said/meant about being a buttload of worry to assume).
I also plan to make it through a month without spending more than I earn by 2008. Good times, good times. Somebody want my credit card bill?
Of course, that projection is predicated on me getting a job as a well paid consultant. Which you may not believe, but hey… I’ve got a plan.
Oh, and regarding gap between classes, that is also measurable, and is noted as often in the Economist and business pages as it is anywhere else. The US has the greatest gap between rich and poor.
There’s the idea that that’s okay, because Americans accept fiscal inequality because of the hope in the American dream.
And yet? it is harder to move classes in the States than even in Pinko Welfare Europe with its sick-pinko-nanny-state-caretaking that spits so viciously in the face of the manly-bootstrapping-I’m-an-individual free market. Grrr. Roughy tough tough.
Unfortunately, if there is a recession, the illusive American dream may not continue to hold water for Joe Average, who realizes his ARM is readjusting to 400%, but who has to sell his house to cover medical expenses after being laid off, but he can’t sell his house for more than he owes in a down market. And hell: the United States is “leveraged” up to its tits in expenditures. The whole idea of saving during good times to spend during bad times being utterly repugnant, it seems.
(( Greatest gap among advanced/first world countries))
Having heard some dire economic projections for the U.S. myself, it makes me wonder what WE are going to do north of the border when the $hit hits the fan.
>The US has the greatest gap between rich and poor.
I know. I’ve also looked at OECD purchasing power parity numbers which show that poor Americans are relatively wealthier than Europeans who sit higher on their respective national income distributions. Simply looking at income gaps or even distributions doesn’t express the situation very well if one is interested in comparing the plights of the poor.
>Having heard some dire economic projections for the U.S.
I can’t be sure I’m thinking of the same things as you, but there have been numerous criticisms of the US balance of trade numbers (not federal government spending). However, those numbers don’t account for reinvestments of US dollars back in the US (productive capital investment rather than consumption).
Bernanke has developed a theory of a global savings glut (yes, there are criticism of the idea):
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/200503102/default.htm
There was a more detailed analysis posted somewhere a few months back as a powerpoint document – and I don’t recall if it was more of Bernanke’s work – which, if I understood the gist correctly, included a similar or related observation: too much of the worlds’ savings end up in the US (and to a lesser degree, other developed nations) because of the relative security of the fiscal climate. IIRC it means the US gets investment capital more cheaply than it should, and benefits from the results of investment more than it should, all of which mitigate against “dire consequences” any time soon.
IrC – do me a favor and turn that speech into english. I have neither the time, the economic acumen, or the interest in reading a speech by Mr. Bernanke.
All I know is that their national debt to GDP ratio is an astonishing 75%, and that many economists predict that sometime in the near to medium future, international creditors will stop lending to them, and they (and we) will be screwed.
I think the pollsters are wrong. I think the time is ripe for a well-spoken common-sense person to be elected. If he happens to be black, so it is. I think people in this country are desperate for someone to at least appear to be telling the truth.
Part of the simpler Bernanke is (very approximately, AIUI) that foreign creditors (investors) won’t stop lending to the US, because the US is a comparatively secure investment climate. They want to park their investment capital where it will receive decent returns, is protected by rule of law, and where they can be reasonably confident it won’t be confiscated. This tends to pull capital away from where it is arguably more needed (developing economies and countries) and gives Americans a bit of a free ride (cheaper costs of capital).
The trade imbalance is not the same as the federal debt, or federal debt-to-GDP ratio. The implication of the zeroing of the deficit mentioned above is that the federal debt will cease to grow; and, assuming GDP continues to increase, debt-to-GDP will fall over time.
Bernanke seems to be of 2 minds
Check it out and let me know what you think IrC.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/18/AR2007011800316.html
It would appear Bernanke is of 2 minds on the issue. What say you IrC?
Somethings wrong, I can’t seem to post. 2 posts in a row here failed….
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/18/AR2007011800316.html
Check it out IrC.